Europe Medium and Heavy Duty Commercial Vehicle Market

Europe Medium and Heavy Duty Commercial Vehicle Market Size, Share and Growth Forecast by Type, by Tonnage, by Fuel Type, by Propulsion Type, and by Country for 2024-2031

Report ID: PMRREP34575

Report Type: Ongoing

Format: PPT*, PDF, EXCEL

Industry: Automotive

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Europe Medium and Heavy Duty Commercial Vehicle Market Size and Share Analysis

The Europe medium and heavy duty commercial vehicle market is estimated to value at US$56.49 Bn by the end of 2031 from US$39.35 Bn recorded in 2024. The market is expected to secure a CAGR of 5.3% in the forthcoming years from 2024 to 2031.

Key Highlights of the Market

  • Increasing demand for sustainable transportation solutions
  • Shortage of truck drivers
  • Rise of alternative fuels
  • Rising demand for used trucks
  • Growing demand from eastern Europe
  • Electrification with a surge in electrically chargeable trucks, and buses
  • The rise of autonomous driving, and connected vehicles

Market Attributes

Key Insights

Europe Medium and Heavy Duty Commercial Vehicle Market Size (2024E)

US$39.35 Bn

Projected Market Value (2031F)

US$56.49 Bn

Europe Market Growth Rate (CAGR 2024 to 2031)


Historical Market Growth Rate (CAGR 2019 to 2024)


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Market Introduction and Trend Analysis

Medium-duty commercial vehicles, with a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 14,001 to 26,000 pounds, are commonly deployed for urban delivery, utility services, and mid-scale construction tasks.

Medium-duty commercial vehicles include box trucks, delivery vans, and school buses.

In contrast, heavy-duty commercial vehicles, exceeding a GVWR of 26,001 pounds, are designed for high-demand applications such as long-haul transportation, heavy construction, and significant industrial tasks. Examples include semi-trucks, dump trucks, and cement mixers.

MHCVs are indispensable to the supply chain, ensuring the seamless movement of goods from production facilities to end consumers.

They underpin the freight industry, with heavy-duty trucks managing extensive, long-distance hauls, while medium-duty trucks handle local and regional deliveries. This strategic deployment enhances logistical efficiency and responsiveness.

According to ACEA, In December 2022, new medium and heavy truck registrations in the EU experienced a 3.2% decline, totalling 24,470 units. Performance varied across Western Europe's largest markets.

Spain achieved the highest percentage increase (+30.2%), followed by Italy (+10.5%). Conversely, Germany saw a significant decrease (-18.6%), with France also experiencing a decline, though less severe (-7.5%).

For the entire year of 2022, new truck registrations across the EU increased by 3.5%, driven by substantial gains from August to November.

Among the key Western European markets, Germany and France recorded declines of 3.5% and 1.0%, respectively. In contrast, Spain showed a robust improvement (+12.7%), while Italy also reported a positive outcome (+2.3%).

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Historical Growth and Course Ahead

The European market for medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicles (MHCVs) witnessed a period of steady expansion between 2018 and 2023. This growth was fueled by a combination of factors.

A robust European economy led to increased demand for goods, driving the need for efficient transportation solutions that MHCVs provide.

Booming trade activity within and beyond Europe further amplified this demand, as strong logistics networks are essential for the seamless movement of goods.

Infrastructure development specifically focused on logistics and freight transport created a more conducive environment for MHCV usage.

Additionally, technological advancements played a crucial role. The introduction of cleaner and more fuel-efficient engines made MHCVs a more attractive option for businesses, lowering operating costs and reducing environmental impact.

While the market experienced occasional fluctuations due to economic uncertainties and regulatory changes, the overall trend remained positive throughout this period, highlighting the strong foundation of the European MHCV market.

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Market Growth Drivers

Rising Demand from E-commerce

Europe's flourishing e-commerce sector drives demand for last-mile delivery solutions. This necessitates a robust network of medium-duty trucks to efficiently manage inner-city and regional goods movement.

E-commerce Europe represents, through its national associations, more than 150,000 companies selling goods and services online to consumers in Europe.

The rapid expansion of the e-commerce sector in Europe is significantly driving the demand for medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicles.

As online shopping proliferates, the logistics and transportation requirements to ensure efficient and timely deliveries have surged correspondingly.

Medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicles are crucial for various operations, including long-haul transport between distribution centers and last-mile deliveries in urban areas.

The spike in online sales, coupled with heightened consumer expectations for rapid delivery, compels e-commerce companies to scale up their vehicle fleets.

Furthermore, the industry’s focus on sustainability is accelerating the shift towards fuel-efficient, low-emission commercial vehicles. Consequently, e-commerce growth is a primary driver of the increased demand for M&HDCVs across Europe.

Surging Demand from Construction Industry

Continued robust investment in Europe's infrastructure sector serves as a significant catalyst for the demand surge in medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicles.

Considering the scale of recent endeavors, Spain's ambitious US$21.7 Bn allocation towards a state-of-the-art high-speed rail line linking Madrid to Barcelona, alongside Germany's strategic US$10.8 Bn investment in a North Sea wind power project.

Sweden, not to be outdone, commits US$5.4 Bn to propel the construction of a high-speed rail corridor from Stockholm to Gothenburg.

France follows suit with a substantial US$4.5 Bn infusion into the modernization of its iconic TGV Atlantique high-speed rail system.

Beyond these, Austria's US$1.6 Bn expansion of Vienna Airport, Belgium's US$3.2 Bn rail line upgrade, and Denmark's US$2.1 Bn Fehmarn Belt tunnel project stand as a testament to the continent's infrastructural momentum.

Even the Netherlands, with its US$4.3 Bn expansion of Schiphol Airport, underscores this trend. These substantial investments herald not only transformative changes but also a lucrative demand uptick for heavy-duty commercial vehicles, positioning the sector for robust growth and market expansion opportunities across Europe.

Factors Impeding the Market

Regulatory Compliance Challenges

The European MHCV market faces stringent emissions regulations, and safety standards imposed by the European Union (EU) and individual member states.

Compliance with regulations such as Euro VI emissions standards requires MHCV manufacturers to invest heavily in research and development to develop cleaner and safer vehicles.

Achieving compliance often involves implementing advanced exhaust after-treatment systems, engine modifications, and other technological enhancements. Meeting these regulatory requirements adds to production costs and can impact profit margins for manufacturers.

Moreover, the complex and evolving nature of regulations across different EU member states can create compliance challenges and increase administrative burdens for companies operating in multiple markets within Europe.

Economic Uncertainties

Economic fluctuations within Europe can significantly impact the MHCV market. Changes in GDP growth, trade tariffs, currency exchange rates, and geopolitical tensions can influence consumer and business confidence, affecting demand for commercial vehicles.

Economic uncertainty in Europe is reflected in data like the rising Economic Policy Uncertainty Index since 2016, record inflation exceeding 7% in April 2024 (IMF), and potentially dampened business sentiment according to surveys like those from the IFO Institute.

These factors, alongside news coverage reflecting anxieties, paint a picture of an economic climate where businesses hesitate to invest, consumers tighten spending, and policymakers grapple with complex challenges.

Economic downturns, such as recessions or financial crises, can lead to reduced investment in infrastructure projects and logistics operations, impacting the demand for new MHCVs.

During periods of economic uncertainty, companies may postpone or scale back investments in fleet expansion or renewal, further affecting sales of new commercial vehicles in the region.

Transition to Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Technologies

The European Union's "Fit for 55" package aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030. This legislative package includes more ambitious CO2 emission standards for new cars and vans, significantly pushing towards zero-emission vehicles.

This presents a major opportunity for medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicle companies to invest in and develop electric and hydrogen fuel cell technologies. Various incentives across Europe, such as grants, tax breaks, and subsidies, support this transition.

Additionally, developing the necessary infrastructure, including charging stations and hydrogen refueling points, is essential to support widespread adoption. By leading in this shift, companies can meet regulatory requirements and appeal to environmentally conscious consumers and businesses.

Leveraging Digitalization and Connectivity

The European Commission’s Digital Transport and Logistics Forum (DTLF) focuses on promoting the digital transformation of the transport and logistics sector.

For medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicle companies, adopting IoT, big data analytics, and advanced telematics presents a significant opportunity to improve fleet management, and efficiency, and reduce operational costs.

Real-time tracking, predictive maintenance, and route optimization are some benefits these technologies offer.

Furthermore, integrating smart logistics solutions with urban planning and smart city initiatives can strategically address urban delivery challenges and congestion.

The investments of governments in digital infrastructure and smart city projects create a conducive environment for these advancements. Embracing digital transformation not only enhances operational efficiency but also opens new business models and services.

Category-wise Analysis


Projected CAGR through 2031

Fuel Type – Diesel


Vehicle Type - Heavy Duty Commercial Vehicle


Diesel Remains the Preferred Fuel Type

The diesel segment accounted for a significant market share of more than 86% in 2023 and is likely to maintain its dominance during the forthcoming years recording a CAGR of 5.5%.

Diesel is set to maintain a substantial share in Europe's medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicle market. Its efficiency for long-haul transportation and established infrastructure make it a preferred choice.

Despite increasing interest in alternative fuels, diesel's reliability and power ensure its continued prominence in commercial fleets across Europe.

In Europe, diesel is the preferred fuel for medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicles due to its superior fuel efficiency and torque, essential for long-haul transportation.

According to ACEA, in 2022, new diesel trucks registered in the EU continued to rise (+3.7%), albeit at a slower pace compared to the previous year. Across the EU, 274,058 units were sold in total, with Central Europe strongly contributing to the region’s performance.

Out of the four key Western European markets, France and Germany suffered losses (-3.0% and -2.4% respectively), while Spain and Italy saw improvements (+11.6% and +4.6% respectively).

The continent's extensive diesel refueling infrastructure ensures convenient access, and advancements in diesel technology have enhanced performance and reduced emissions.

HCVs Contribute a Substantial Share to Market Revenue

The heavy duty commercial vehicle (HCV) segment accounted for a significant market share in 2023 and is likely to maintain its dominance during the forthcoming years recording a CAGR of 5.4%.

The Heavy Duty Commercial Vehicle (HCV) segment is dominating the European heavy and medium-duty commercial vehicle market.

According to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA), HCVs account for a significant portion of commercial vehicle sales in Europe, driven by the demand for efficient transportation solutions for large cargo over long distances.  

The ACEA reports that HCV registrations increased by 5.3% in 2023, underscoring the segment's critical role in the logistics and freight sectors.

This dominance is further supported by the European Union's ongoing investment in infrastructure and the implementation of policies aimed at enhancing the efficiency and sustainability of freight transport.

For instance, the EU’s "Green Deal" emphasizes reducing emissions from heavy-duty vehicles, pushing manufacturers to innovate and adopt greener technologies.

Additionally, HCVs benefit from a well-established network of refueling stations, maintenance facilities, and regulatory support, making them the backbone of Europe's commercial transportation network.

These factors collectively reinforce the HCV segment's leading position in the market.

Region-wise Analysis


CAGR through 2034





Germany Maintains a Significant Revenue Share

Germany is the most significant shareholder in the Europe market and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.8% during the forecast period.

According to the ACEA, in 2023 more than 28% of market shares were captured by Germany. Germany's robust automotive industry, led by top manufacturers like Mercedes-Benz, and Daimler Truck, excels in high-quality vehicle production.

The advanced infrastructure, and strategic location ensure efficient logistics and market access. The industry's focus on sustainability and innovation, especially in electric and hybrid vehicles, supports global environmental goals.

Germany's economic stability, skilled workforce, and supportive government policies foster continuous growth in the medium and heavy duty commercial vehicle market.

Germany's automotive industry continues to be the country's foremost innovator, with a substantial portion of its revenue coming from new product innovations.

Nearly 70 percent of companies in the sector have launched new products or processes. Investment in innovation, encompassing both internal and external R&D expenditures, is steadily on the rise.

Germany has established itself as a dominant force in the European MHCV market. German brands lead the market, with Mercedes being the most popular brand in 2021, holding around 19% of the market share.

Daimler Truck, the parent company of Mercedes-Benz, reported sales revenue of 13.1 billion euros and over 72,800 truck sales in Europe. Other significant players include MAN and DAF, which hold 15% and 16% of the market share, respectively.

The top seven companies in the MHCV market are all European brands. Germany reported the highest MHCV sales within the European Union, with approximately 79,000 units sold in 2021, whereas France sold about 45,000 trucks in the same period.

While Germany led in sales volume, Poland had the largest truck fleet in the region, with nearly 1.2 million vehicles.

France All Set for a Robus CAGR Through 2031

France is projected to exhibit a notable CAGR in the medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicle market. According to the ACEA, in 2023, more than 14% of market shares were captured by France.

The growth is driven by various factors, including the country's robust infrastructure, supportive government policies, and increasing demand for efficient logistics and transportation solutions.

France's strategic position in Europe, coupled with its extensive network of highways and well-developed industrial base, makes it an attractive market for commercial vehicle manufacturers and operators.

Moreover, the rise of e-commerce and the corresponding need for reliable and timely delivery services are fueling demand for medium and heavy-duty vehicles.

The e-commerce industry in France is booming, with the sector valued at US$176.4 Bn in 2023, a 10.5% increase from 2022. Despite a 1.8% drop in online product sales to US$65.3 Bn, the services sector grew by 20%.

The year also saw a 4.9% rise in online transactions, totalling 2.35 Bn. As businesses strive to optimize their supply chains and enhance delivery capabilities, the market for these commercial vehicles in France is set to grow, reflecting a strong CAGR in the foreseeable future.

Competitive Landscape Analysis

In the competitive landscape of Europe's medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicle market, key players like Daimler AG, Volvo Group, MAN Truck & Bus AG, Scania AB, and IVECO dominate. These companies lead through their innovation in areas like electric and hydrogen fuel cell technologies, digitalization, and sustainable transport solutions.

Several manufacturers of medium and heavy-duty vehicles in Europe have assured to significantly boost their sales of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in the forthcoming years.

Concurrently, numerous automakers are actively striving to expand the range of ZEV models available within the next decade. Emerging trends such as electrification and autonomous driving are shaping the market, driven by regulatory pressures and customer demands for efficiency and sustainability.

Success in this competitive arena hinges on innovation, adaptation to market dynamics, and meeting stringent regulatory requirements.

Recent Developments in the Medium and Heavy-Duty Commercial Vehicle Market

March 2024

Hyundai Motor, and Iveco Group announced an expansion of their partnership to explore synergies for electric heavy-duty trucks in the European markets.


MAN Truck & Bus revealed intentions to pioneer as the first European truck manufacturer to introduce a series of hydrogen-powered trucks. This initial small-scale series is slated to comprise approximately 200 units, earmarked for delivery to customers in Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Iceland, and certain non-European countries starting in 2025.


Volvo Trucks introduced a completely new heavy-duty truck platform tailored for the North American market. Simultaneously, they launched a fresh heavy-duty truck lineup for Europe, Australia, and various markets in Asia, and Africa. These new models, featuring enhanced energy efficiency and trucks powered by electricity and renewable fuels, are aimed at reducing CO2 emissions. This move brings Volvo Trucks closer to its goal of achieving a net-zero emission product range by 2040.

Japanese automaker Isuzu revealed its debut electric vehicle, set to roll out next year, starting with a launch in Europe. The D-MAX BEV pickup truck will make its initial debut in select countries, including Norway, in 2025.

September 2023

Volvo Maroc launched a new range of electric trucks in the medium and heavy-duty categories. The company aims for 50% of its global sales to come from new electric trucks by 2030 and is committed to achieving 100% net-zero emissions by 2040. With six electric truck models already in serial production, Volvo Trucks provides the most extensive electric lineup in the global truck industry.

April 2023

Daimler unveiled a fresh electric medium-duty truck brand in the US. The distribution of vehicles is scheduled to commence in the fourth quarter of 2023 through an exclusive partnership with Velocity Vehicle Group.

Report Scope



Forecast Period

2024 to 2031

Historical Data Available for

2019 to 2023

Market Analysis

US$ Billion for Value

Key Countries Covered

  • Germany
  • Italy
  • France
  • U.K.
  • Spain
  • Türkiye
  • Russia
  • Rest of Europe

Key Market Segments Covered

  • Vehicle Type
  • Tonnage
  • Propulsion Type
  • Fuel Type
  • Country

Key Companies Profiled in the Report

  • Daimler AG.
  • Ford Motor Company.
  • Hino Motors, Ltd.
  • IVECO.
  • Man Truck & Bus.
  • PACCAR Inc.
  • Scania AB.
  • Volvo Group.
  • DAF Trucks
  • Renault Trucks
  • Ashok Leyland
  • BMC
  • SOR

Report Coverage

  • Market Forecast and Trends
  • Company Share Analysis
  • Competitive Intelligence
  • DROT Analysis
  • Market Dynamics and Challenges
  • Strategic Growth Initiatives  

Customization & Pricing

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Market Segmentation

By Type

  • Medium Commercial Vehicle
  • Heavy Duty Commercial Vehicle

By Tonnage

  • 3.5 - 7.5 ton
  • 7.5 - 16 ton
  • Above 16 ton

By Propulsion Type

  • IC Engine
  • Plug-In Hybrid Electric
  • Battery Electric
  • Alternative Fuel Powered

By Fuel Type

  • Diesel
  • Petrol
  • Electrically-Chargeable (ECV)
  • Hybrid Electric (HEV)
  • Alternative Fuels

By Country

  • Germany
  • Italy
  • France
  • U.K.
  • Spain
  • Türkiye
  • Russia
  • Rest of Europe

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Companies Covered in This Report

Frequently Asked Questions

The rise in e-commerce drives demand for logistics and delivery services, while investments in infrastructure projects boost the need for construction and vehicles.

Some of the key players operating in the market are Daimler AG, Volvo Group, MAN Truck & Bus AG, Scania AB, and IVECO.

The diesel segment recorded a significant market share.

The transition to electric and hydrogen fuel cell technologies is expected to present significant opportunities for market players.

Germany accounts for a significant share of the market.

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