A Detailed Analysis of the Non-Dairy Milk Market Based on Increasing Consumer Demand for Plant-Based Alternatives to Traditional Dairy Products
Report ID: PMRREP34097
Report Type: Ongoing
Format: PPT*, PDF, EXCEL
Industry: Food and Beverages
The global non-dairy milk market is forecast to expand at a CAGR of 12.1% and thereby increase from an estimated value of US$16.84 Bn in 2024, to US$37.47 Bn by the end of 2031.
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Attributes |
Key Insights |
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Non-Dairy Milk Market Size (2024E) |
US$16.84 Bn |
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Projected Market Value (2031F) |
US$37.47 Bn |
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Global Market Growth Rate (CAGR 2024 to 2031) |
12.1% |
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Historical Market Growth Rate (CAGR 2018 to 2024) |
9.4% |
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The non-dairy milk market has seen a remarkable rise in recent years, reflecting changing consumer preferences and dietary trends. This market encompasses a variety of plant-based milk alternatives, such as almond, soy, oat, and coconut milk, which are gaining popularity as substitutes for traditional dairy milk. The surge in demand for non-dairy milk can be attributed to several factors, including increasing awareness of health and wellness, environmental concerns related to dairy production, and dietary restrictions such as lactose intolerance and veganism.
Consumers are seeking healthier and more sustainable options, driving the growth of this market segment. Moreover, advancements in food technology have led to the development of a wider range of non-dairy milk products with improved taste, texture, and nutritional profiles, further fuelling market expansion. As a result, non-dairy milk has become a mainstream choice for many consumers, reshaping the landscape of the beverage industry and offering a viable alternative to traditional dairy products.
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Get a Customized VersionThe Rise of the Health-Conscious Consumer
The rise of health-conscious consumers seeking alternatives to dairy has fueled demand for non-dairy milks. Today, consumers increasingly prioritize health and wellness, driving demand for non-dairy alternatives perceived as healthier. Lactose intolerance and dairy allergies are significant factors, but the trend extends beyond specific dietary needs. Consumers associate plant-based milks with various benefits, including lower saturated fat, cholesterol, and even potential weight management advantages.
This health-conscious movement fuels innovation in the non-dairy space. Brands are fortifying their offerings with vitamins and minerals, tapping into the "functional beverage" trend. Oat milk, for example, boasts high fiber content, while soy milk is a natural source of protein. Additionally, concerns about sugar consumption are leading to the development of low-sugar and unsweetened options, catering to a wider range of health-conscious individuals.
Lactose-Free Living Attracts Former Dairy Drinkers
Lactose intolerance and dairy allergies afflict over 50 million Americans. These consumers are turning to non-dairy milks that are naturally free of lactose and dairy. Their digestive woes drive them to seek out plant-based milk alternatives. And with modern innovations like added protein and nutrients, non-dairy varieties mimic the nutrition of cow’s milk. Easy swaps that require no lifestyle changes beyond checking labels appeal to this massive demographic. As awareness and diagnoses of dairy-related conditions increases, their thirst for lactose-free, non-dairy options brings booming demand.
Cost Constraints
One of the significant growth restraints facing the non-dairy milk market is the cost challenges associated with production and distribution. Compared to traditional dairy products, non-dairy milk alternatives often require more resources and specialized processing techniques, leading to higher production costs. Additionally, sourcing high-quality plant-based ingredients can be expensive, further contributing to the elevated cost of non-dairy milk products. These increased production expenses are then passed on to consumers through higher retail prices, making non-dairy milk less affordable for some segments of the population.
Moreover, the economies of scale in dairy production are often not matched in the non-dairy sector, exacerbating the cost differentials. As a result, price sensitivity among consumers remains a significant barrier to the widespread adoption of non-dairy milk, particularly in price-sensitive markets and regions with lower disposable incomes.
Taste and Texture Challenges
Another growth restraint for the non-dairy milk market is the taste and texture challenges associated with some plant-based alternatives. While significant advancements have been made in improving the taste and consistency of non-dairy milk products, many consumers still find them lacking compared to traditional dairy milk. Some plant-based milks may have distinct flavors, or textures that are unfamiliar or unappealing to consumers accustomed to dairy milk.
Additionally, achieving the desired consistency and mouthfeel without the use of stabilizers or additives can be challenging for manufacturers. As taste preferences vary widely among consumers, meeting the expectations of diverse palates presents a significant hurdle for the non-dairy milk industry. Overcoming these taste and texture challenges through continued innovation and product development efforts will be crucial for driving further market growth and acceptance.
Cafés, and Coffee Shops Ripe for Plant-Based Milk Upsells
As coffee culture booms globally, cafes and coffee shops represent a prime venue for non-dairy milk growth. With dairy fatigue setting in among frequent latte and cappuccino drinkers, the $45 billion coffee shop market faces rising demand for plant-based alternatives. Capturing just a sliver of dairy milk’s dominance in cafes unlocks immense potential for oat, soy, almond and other non-dairy varieties.
Chains like Starbucks already offer dairy-free milk options, but independent shops remain largely untapped terrain. By encouraging small to midsize cafes to provide non-dairy milks, an enormous new channel for growth and exposure opens up. And as customers increasingly seek plant-powered additions to their daily cup of joe both in-store and to-go, the opportunities for non-dairy to tap into this market abound.
Emerging Markets Offer New Horizons
While Europe and North America dominate today’s non-dairy milk sales, emerging economies present new frontiers. Markets like China, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa remain largely nascent in dairy alternatives, yet face rising incomes, globalized tastes and health consciousness. With lactose intolerance prevalent across Asian consumers and global sustainability awareness spreading, these regions showcase ideal conditions to accelerate non-dairy milk adoption.
Market entrants through local production and distribution partnerships can carve out enormous early-mover advantages. And as plant-based diets and values gain ground globally, cracking emerging markets offers non-dairy milk products vast new growth terrain and billions of newly affluent or conscious consumers to court.
In the short term, spanning from 2024 to 2026, the non-dairy milk market is expected to maintain its momentum with a projected Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10-15%. This growth trajectory will be sustained by several key factors. Firstly, there's a noticeable surge in health consciousness among consumers who prioritize plant-based options due to their perceived health benefits, such as lower saturated fat and cholesterol levels. Moreover, heightened environmental awareness is propelling demand for sustainable alternatives like oat and pea milk, as consumers seek to mitigate dairy's environmental impact.
Furthermore, continuous innovation in taste and texture improvements is making non-dairy options more appealing to a broader audience, driving market expansion. Additionally, the exploration of non-dairy milks in new applications such as baking and savory dishes is creating fresh growth opportunities, bolstering market dynamics. Nonetheless, challenges such as price premiums compared to dairy and concerns regarding artificial ingredients necessitate strategic attention to ensure sustained growth.
Looking towards the long term, spanning from 2027 to 2030, the outlook for the non-dairy milk market appears even more promising with an anticipated CAGR of 12-17%. This optimistic outlook is underpinned by several factors that will shape the market landscape. Firstly, demographic shifts, including the growing vegan and flexitarian populations, are expected to expand the consumer base for non-dairy milk products. Additionally, the market's expansion into emerging markets, driven by increased disposable income and rising awareness in developing countries, will be a significant growth driver.
Furthermore, continuous technological advancements in processing and ingredient sourcing will further enhance the sustainability and affordability of non-dairy milk products, bolstering their appeal among consumers. Moreover, the trend towards personalization, including catering to individual dietary needs and preferences through fortified options, allergen-specific varieties, and direct-to-consumer delivery, is expected to drive engagement and foster brand loyalty in the long term.
Supply-side Dynamics
Supply dynamics within the non-dairy milk market are intricately woven into its operational framework, shaping both production capacities and consumer demand. Raw material availability stands as a cornerstone, directly influencing production costs and, subsequently, consumer prices. Fluctuations in weather patterns, crop yields, and global trade dynamics can create volatility, impacting supply chains and potentially leading to product shortages or price hikes, particularly affecting price-sensitive consumers.
Furthermore, the industry's ability to scale production capacity in response to escalating demand is pivotal. However, expanding infrastructure and acquiring processing equipment entail significant investments and time, potentially resulting in supply shortages during peak demand periods. This imbalance could elevate prices and hinder consumer accessibility.
Sustainability concerns also permeate supply dynamics, with consumers increasingly favoring ethically sourced ingredients and environmentally friendly production methods. Brands prioritizing sustainability may incur higher costs, potentially influencing consumer willingness to pay premiums for responsibly sourced products.
Navigating regulatory landscapes poses another challenge, with evolving regulations impacting labeling, nutritional claims, and ingredient sourcing. Such uncertainties may deter investments in production facilities or ingredient sourcing, consequently affecting supply and consumer accessibility.
Will Almond and Oat Milk Overtake Dairy Alternatives Soon?
The non-dairy milk market boasts a diverse array of product types, catering to various consumer preferences and dietary needs. This segmentation encompasses popular options such as almond milk, soy milk, coconut milk, oat milk, and others.
Almond and oat milk emerge as dominant segments within the non-dairy milk market, with almond milk currently holding a robust market share of around 35% and oat milk swiftly gaining ground.
Almond milk's popularity is attributed to its versatile nature, neutral taste profile, and perceived health benefits such as lower saturated fat content. Meanwhile, oat milk's ascendancy is fueled by its creamy texture, high fiber content, and strong association with sustainability practices, appealing to environmentally conscious consumers.
Both almond and oat milk segments are poised for continued growth, buoyed by ongoing innovations in taste and texture, expanding applications beyond beverages (e.g., in baking and cooking), and increasing consumer awareness regarding their potential health benefits and positive environmental impact. This growth trajectory indicates a promising future for these plant-powered alternatives, with their market dominance set to persist in the coming years.
How has been the Performance of Online Stores, and Supermarkets/Hypermarkets?
While most non-dairy milk today sells through grocery and health food stores, online sales demonstrate enormous room for growth. As grocery delivery services like Ocado expand, accessing plant-based varieties grows ever-more convenient for time-pressed consumers. And through online stores, suppliers can offer far wider selections while reaching rural customers.
As eCommerce penetration continues rising across demographics, online will likely capture over 15% of non-dairy milk sales by the end of the decade - quadruple its current share. Smart suppliers who invest early in online channels and partnerships will reap the rewards of this fast-growing retail segment.
Which Region is Leading the Charge in Growth?
The Asia Pacific region emerges as the epicenter of growth within the global non-dairy milk market, boasting the fastest expansion at a remarkable CAGR of approximately 15% throughout the forecast period. This surge is propelled by a heightened emphasis on health concerns, including cholesterol management, weight control, and combating chronic heart diseases, which fosters a burgeoning adoption of dairy-free products across the Asian markets.
Moreover, the region's increasing embrace of vegetarian diets and vegan lifestyles, particularly notable in countries like India and China, along with a notable prevalence of lactose intolerance, further accelerates market growth on a global scale.
Additionally, factors such as the rising middle-class population, growing disposable incomes, evolving lifestyles, and broader socio-economic shifts collectively drive demand for plant-based milk alternatives across the APAC market. Notably, the rising popularity of coconut milk within Southeast and South Asian countries significantly contributes to the revenue surge witnessed in the global non-dairy milk market.
In the non-dairy milk industry, several significant companies stand out as market leaders , with established giants like Danone (Silk, So Delicious) and Blue Diamond Growers locking horns with innovative upstarts like Oatly Group and Ripple Foods. Competitive strategies are as diverse as the milks themselves.
Danone leverages its vast distribution network and brand recognition to dominate the mainstream market, while Oatly focuses on premium, barista-quality offerings and sustainability initiatives. Blue Diamond Growers capitalizes on its almond expertise, and Ripple Foods targets pea protein for its unique blend of taste and nutrition.
Beyond established brands, niche players like Califia Farms and Elmhurst 1921 specialize in unique nut milks and plant-based creamers, catering to specific dietary needs and taste preferences.
So, what sets the leaders apart? Danone boasts unrivaled global reach, while Oatly enjoys cult-like brand loyalty and a first-mover advantage in the oat milk segment. Blue Diamond Growers controls a significant portion of the almond supply chain, and Ripple Foods holds patents on its pea protein technology.
The competitive landscape will likely see further consolidation, with established players acquiring smaller brands to expand their portfolios. Innovation will remain key, with a focus on new ingredients, functionalities, and sustainable practices. Smaller players with unique offerings and direct-to-consumer models can carve out profitable niches.
New Product launches:
In January 2023, Nestle entered the US non-dairy milk market by launching Wunderoots - a new line of oat milks enhanced with vitamins, minerals and omega-3s. Offered in original and chocolate flavors, the kid-focused brand seeks to provide child-friendly nutrition and appeal to parents seeking healthy alternatives. Wunderoots leverages Nestlé’s vast distribution infrastructure for immediate nationwide exposure.
As the largest food company worldwide, Nestlé’s entry lends further credibility to non-dairy milk’s mainstream appeal. Wunderoots’ launch in over 10,000 stores instantly establishes significant market share. And Nestlé’s financial resources and R&D expertise promise continued innovation in future non-dairy products. This move recognizing plant-based milk’s staying power seals its competitiveness against traditional dairy.
Perfect Day Launches Animal-Free Dairy Proteins
Sustainable start-up Perfect Day gained regulatory approval in 2022 to sell animal-free dairy proteins made through precision fermentation rather than cows. Their proteins offer identical nutritional content to conventional dairy without lactose or cholesterol.
While not directly plant-based, Perfect Day’s dairy alternative proteins enable a new generation of non-dairy products like ice cream and milk with the taste and texture of the real thing. Their innovative solution sidesteps constraints around crop supplies and ingredients to sustainably scale next-level milk and dairy analogues. Having raised over $500 million funding, the company’s first commercial partnerships signify the next phase in disrupting traditional dairy categories.
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Details |
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Forecast Period |
2024 to 2031 |
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Historical Data Available for |
2018 to 2024 |
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Market Analysis |
US$ Million for Value |
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Key Regions Covered |
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Key Countries Covered |
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Key Market Segments Covered |
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Key Companies Profiled |
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Report Coverage |
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Customization & Pricing |
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An increasing number of consumers opting for a vegan lifestyle, rising cases of lactose intolerance, and a thriving trend of plant-based ingredients that collectively drive a shift from traditional to non-dairy dietary alternatives will be the major growth driving factors for the market.
The market is forecasted to expand at a CAGR of 12.1% over the projected period.
In 2024, the non-dairy milk market is expected to reach a valuation of US$37.4 Bn.
The APAC emerged as the leader in market share in 2024.
Key manufacturers in the market include Otsuka Holdings Co, Ltd. (Daiya Foods Inc.), GreenVie Foods, Upfield Holdings B.V., Saputo Inc., Angel Food, Happy Cheeze GmbH (Dr Mannah's), Tofutti Brands Inc., Unibel SA, WayFare Health Foods, and The Kraft Heinz Company.
